Stanford Seeding Predictions

So this is the kind of thing I speculate about when someone else isn't posting something for me to read on a blog or RSD and that is predictions about results affecting upcoming tournaments. Now with a definitive list
of the field set I'm going to attempt to seed these teams based on the varied results from this year by a tiered system. Here goes...

Tier 1
Now that the top tournaments are officially recognized by a unified series all the top teams want to play in them. Not all get to, but with a qualifier tournament, this will attract top local teams who didn't get bids to the Invite. What the qualifier also has going for it is geography. Typically the Northwest has been the strongest region over the past few decades and the Southwest isn't far behind, so the local talent is strong. These teams are good but lack the consistency of the elite teams to get invited year after year.

Oregon State
Washington
Humboldt State
Claremont
Davis

OSU is always a threat to knock off big teams and makes the trek to Vegas every year to do so. Even though they didn't perform well this year, (in fact losing to Washington and Claremont) they are still better than most of the field here. UW made Nationals a couple of years ago when the Northwest got the elusive 3rd bid and hasn't gotten an Invite bid in a while while still attending Centex, but the NCUS has influenced their decision this year. I've got to believe they are the favorites this weekend. Humboldt has won the qualifier a few times in the past few years including last year, so they know what it takes to come out on top on Sunday. Claremont is still a top team and just unfortunate to be in the region where UCSB and Colorado are firmly in control year after year, but have had some impressive showings this year at President's Day. Davis quietly puts together solid seasons after being a dominating team in the NW circa 2000-02 when they were the only team to beat Stanford on the way to Stanford winning it all in 02. They have talent but not enough to compete at the highest level.

Tier 2
These teams are perennial favorites to make regionals and occasionally may have a big upset game but usually lack the program infrastructure to recruit and develop talented teams, still solid nonetheless.

Chico State
Lewis and Clark
Reed
San Diego State
Gonzaga

I was borderline with putting Chico State in tier 1, after they have won the Invite recently, go to Vegas and win games, but they really haven't had any significant wins yet and quite a few losses. Yet this team isn't about winning (unless it's a boat race) as much as it is having fun. It's always a pleasure to play these guys and and I'm sad I won't be going to CHUG anymore. Lewis & Clark and Reed are usually on the same level which is great because it makes for a great rivalry for the battle of Portland. I think at this point L & C has an edge because they've gotten competition under their belt by traveling to Vegas. I don't know much about San Diego St and Gonzaga at this point other than the results from Vegas and Pres Day, but SDSU automatically gets this high for their impressive win over Arizona. I don't know the details but even if Arizona was injured or sluggish or something, SDSU still must have played a great game and have had other great results so far. I know Gonzaga hasn't done well yet, but they have traditionally played well at Stanford so I'm not ready to downplay them yet.

Tier 3
These teams are still in development and have a good chance of making prequarters but not advancing further. Largely sticking to local competition, these teams might make regionals in a good year but don't have the firepower to build consistent programs.

Santa Clara
Simon Fraser
PLU
Westmont
Sonoma State

These teams aren't necessarily bad as much as they are relatively inexperienced. They have only come into existence in the past few years so they experience the typical growing pains of a new program. The front runner of this group would probably have to be PLU, started several years ago by the incomparable Aaron Bell and have experienced some regionals success. They don't have any results yet from this year but always seem to be on par with the previous year's results.

Tier 4
The B teams. The B teams aren't necessarily any worse than the teams in Tier 3 but they just grouped so nicely together. As far as B teams go, these programs are usually some of the best, annually placing in the top 10 in RRI for B teams, because of the strong national caliber A team programs they train with.

Oregon B
Texas B
California B
Stanford B
UCLA B

Unfortunately, none of the teams here have had the marque mid major victories that elevate the RRI of these teams above 2000 and sometimes above 2100 (with the exception of Oregon B who hasn't been to a tournament yet). Stanford and Texas might be having down years, especially since Stanford A drained a lot of the talent by calling people up to play on Bloodthirsty. Cal B could take the Bay Area B team title this year, but its still early and UCLA B is stuck with the lower caliber talent pool in Los Angelos as they are saying these days. As far as we look, we're getting better, in fact better than year's past and might even sneak into the championship bracket, something we've never done to my knowledge.

So if I were seeding the tournament, this would be how it goes (also some of these teams don't align with my tiering because this is where I accounted current RRI into rankings but still are relatively close).

1. Washington
2. Claremont
3. SDSU
4. Humboldt
5. Oregon State
6. Davis
7. Chico State
8. Lewis and Clark
9. Gonzaga
10. Reed
11. PLU
12. Santa Clara
13. Oregon B
14. Simon Fraser
15. Cal B
16. Sonoma State
17. Stanford B
18. Texas B
19. UCLA B
20. Westmont

So if the Qualifier follows the same format as the Invite, these would be the pools...

Washington
L & C
Gonzaga
Sonoma St
Stanford B

Claremont
Chico St
Reed
Cal B
Texas B

SDSU
Davis
PLU
Simon Fraser
UCLA B

Humboldt
Oregon St
Santa Clara
Oregon B
Westmont

Stanford also takes into account geographical diversity which would affect the standings and I like that, so we'll see how close my predictions are to the real thing, and then I'll make results predictions from there.