Friday, February 29, 2008

Leland Stanford Junior College Qualification Tournament Predictions

Not more than one mediocre night's sleep after I made my seeding predictions, the real deal showed up on the score reporter. I did an ok job, I got the four number 1 seeds correct, but struggled with the rest. Now that I have something legitimate to evaluate I'm going to attempt to pick the winner with the minimal knowledge of these teams that I have.

Pool A

With SDSU getting the top overall seed, it should be smooth sailing in this pool with a yet to emerge Davis team and the gamut of eager B teams just looking to make the championship bracket. Davis should take the second slot but there isn't much seperating them from the rest of the teams and there could be potential shake-ups in the pecking order at the end of the day. My guess is they will show that despite relatively few wins so far in the year they have the taller, faster athletes that B teamers can't keep up with for entire games. I've got to put faith in my guys that they will prove their worth by claiming the B team pool crown and advance to Sunday.

SDSU (4-0)
Davis (3-1)
UO-B (2-2)
Texas-B (1-3)
Cal-B (0-4)

Pool B

Again, the top seed, Claremont, is head and shoulders above the rest of their pool but Chico State is always a threat to knock of teams and they have won the Qualifier in recent years. I'm really surprised they got seeded third behind Gonzaga, considering Gonzaga hasn't performed well this year and I don't think they are deserving a two seed. Stanford-B could have improved since Vegas and I have to believe they want to defend their home turf, but Bloodthirsty did deplete their ranks. I'm going to go out on a limb and say they break seed to make pre-quarters.

Claremont (4-0)
Chico State (3-1)
Stanford-B (2-2)
Gonzaga (1-3)
Westmont (0-4)

Pool C

Now the teams start to level out with a greater degree of parity and could produce some exciting games, especially since UW and OSU have faced each other twice already and might feel they know how to play the other now. Santa Clara and UCLA-B won't be competitive for the rest of the teams in their pool and Reed could scare the Beavs and the Sundodgers but without Fish, they don't have the big guns to match the state schools. This pool goes to seed

Washington (4-0)
Oregon State (3-1)
Reed (2-2)
Santa Clara (1-3)
UCLA-B (0-4)

Pool D

Despite Humboldt and L & C being seeded 4th and 5th respectively, I think Humboldt has the edge at this point in the season and will take the game. PLU sits comfortably below Bacchus and Buds and has the skills to calmly take care of Simon Fraser and Sonoma State. With the exception of the Humboldt vs. L & C, these teams should be relatively rested compared with the rest of the teams in the tourney come Sunday.

Humboldt (4-0)
L & C (3-1)
PLU (2-2)
Simon Fraser (1-3)
Sonoma State (0-4)

This is how I see Sunday going down.

Prequarters

Chico over Reed
Oregon State over Stanford-B
L & C over Oregon-B
PLU over Davis in the upset of the morning

Quarters
SDSU over Chico St
Oregon State over Humboldt
Washington over L & C
Claremont over PLU

Semis
SDSU over Oregon State
Claremont over Washington

Finals
Claremont over SDSU

Full write-up on the tournament (or at least what I saw of it) next week.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Stanford Seeding Predictions

So this is the kind of thing I speculate about when someone else isn't posting something for me to read on a blog or RSD and that is predictions about results affecting upcoming tournaments. Now with a definitive list
of the field set I'm going to attempt to seed these teams based on the varied results from this year by a tiered system. Here goes...

Tier 1
Now that the top tournaments are officially recognized by a unified series all the top teams want to play in them. Not all get to, but with a qualifier tournament, this will attract top local teams who didn't get bids to the Invite. What the qualifier also has going for it is geography. Typically the Northwest has been the strongest region over the past few decades and the Southwest isn't far behind, so the local talent is strong. These teams are good but lack the consistency of the elite teams to get invited year after year.

Oregon State
Washington
Humboldt State
Claremont
Davis

OSU is always a threat to knock off big teams and makes the trek to Vegas every year to do so. Even though they didn't perform well this year, (in fact losing to Washington and Claremont) they are still better than most of the field here. UW made Nationals a couple of years ago when the Northwest got the elusive 3rd bid and hasn't gotten an Invite bid in a while while still attending Centex, but the NCUS has influenced their decision this year. I've got to believe they are the favorites this weekend. Humboldt has won the qualifier a few times in the past few years including last year, so they know what it takes to come out on top on Sunday. Claremont is still a top team and just unfortunate to be in the region where UCSB and Colorado are firmly in control year after year, but have had some impressive showings this year at President's Day. Davis quietly puts together solid seasons after being a dominating team in the NW circa 2000-02 when they were the only team to beat Stanford on the way to Stanford winning it all in 02. They have talent but not enough to compete at the highest level.

Tier 2
These teams are perennial favorites to make regionals and occasionally may have a big upset game but usually lack the program infrastructure to recruit and develop talented teams, still solid nonetheless.

Chico State
Lewis and Clark
Reed
San Diego State
Gonzaga

I was borderline with putting Chico State in tier 1, after they have won the Invite recently, go to Vegas and win games, but they really haven't had any significant wins yet and quite a few losses. Yet this team isn't about winning (unless it's a boat race) as much as it is having fun. It's always a pleasure to play these guys and and I'm sad I won't be going to CHUG anymore. Lewis & Clark and Reed are usually on the same level which is great because it makes for a great rivalry for the battle of Portland. I think at this point L & C has an edge because they've gotten competition under their belt by traveling to Vegas. I don't know much about San Diego St and Gonzaga at this point other than the results from Vegas and Pres Day, but SDSU automatically gets this high for their impressive win over Arizona. I don't know the details but even if Arizona was injured or sluggish or something, SDSU still must have played a great game and have had other great results so far. I know Gonzaga hasn't done well yet, but they have traditionally played well at Stanford so I'm not ready to downplay them yet.

Tier 3
These teams are still in development and have a good chance of making prequarters but not advancing further. Largely sticking to local competition, these teams might make regionals in a good year but don't have the firepower to build consistent programs.

Santa Clara
Simon Fraser
PLU
Westmont
Sonoma State

These teams aren't necessarily bad as much as they are relatively inexperienced. They have only come into existence in the past few years so they experience the typical growing pains of a new program. The front runner of this group would probably have to be PLU, started several years ago by the incomparable Aaron Bell and have experienced some regionals success. They don't have any results yet from this year but always seem to be on par with the previous year's results.

Tier 4
The B teams. The B teams aren't necessarily any worse than the teams in Tier 3 but they just grouped so nicely together. As far as B teams go, these programs are usually some of the best, annually placing in the top 10 in RRI for B teams, because of the strong national caliber A team programs they train with.

Oregon B
Texas B
California B
Stanford B
UCLA B

Unfortunately, none of the teams here have had the marque mid major victories that elevate the RRI of these teams above 2000 and sometimes above 2100 (with the exception of Oregon B who hasn't been to a tournament yet). Stanford and Texas might be having down years, especially since Stanford A drained a lot of the talent by calling people up to play on Bloodthirsty. Cal B could take the Bay Area B team title this year, but its still early and UCLA B is stuck with the lower caliber talent pool in Los Angelos as they are saying these days. As far as we look, we're getting better, in fact better than year's past and might even sneak into the championship bracket, something we've never done to my knowledge.

So if I were seeding the tournament, this would be how it goes (also some of these teams don't align with my tiering because this is where I accounted current RRI into rankings but still are relatively close).

1. Washington
2. Claremont
3. SDSU
4. Humboldt
5. Oregon State
6. Davis
7. Chico State
8. Lewis and Clark
9. Gonzaga
10. Reed
11. PLU
12. Santa Clara
13. Oregon B
14. Simon Fraser
15. Cal B
16. Sonoma State
17. Stanford B
18. Texas B
19. UCLA B
20. Westmont

So if the Qualifier follows the same format as the Invite, these would be the pools...

Washington
L & C
Gonzaga
Sonoma St
Stanford B

Claremont
Chico St
Reed
Cal B
Texas B

SDSU
Davis
PLU
Simon Fraser
UCLA B

Humboldt
Oregon St
Santa Clara
Oregon B
Westmont

Stanford also takes into account geographical diversity which would affect the standings and I like that, so we'll see how close my predictions are to the real thing, and then I'll make results predictions from there.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Growing old, staying still

I've noticed in practice sometimes I become increasingly frustrated with the way things are run and set up. I keep wondering why some of the guys continually do not get the offense or the set plays that we have even though we practice them over and over again and still we look too inconsistent at times to really threaten other teams at this point. It got to the point yesterday where I even had thoughts of leaving practice because I didn't feel it to be worthwhile when I saw other guys just goofing around half the time and not taking things seriously.

The thing is, I love ultimate and hope that I can play it till old age and my body parts finally give out but recently I have had feelings of dissatisfaction with the game. I couldn't figure it out because I still spend half my day reading either RSD, or Match's blog, or something else related to ultimate.

So I came to this realization: I was the same way when I joined this team 3 years ago. The B team is designed to be a do over every year, and by that I mean we are in existence to develop guys to be better players and better team players. So this often means repeating the drills, offenses, defenses and general play year after year. When I was first starting out, I needed to same repetitions and guidance to understand the system and it took some time to learn it. I was taking advice from everyone else and now it seems like I'm the one who is constantly giving advice whether critical or constructive because I've been going through the same motions for 3 years now. I don't profess to know everything because I'm constantly learning new things about ultimate but sometimes the knowledge being taught to the new guys can be a drag because I've heard it so many times before and I wish they would absorb it immediately so we can move to bigger and better things.

The thing is, B team ultimate is usually caught between styles of play that can be very frustrating at times. It lacks the athletes and veterans of the A teams while being a step above the jovial sociability of rec leagues. That's not say that B team ultimate isn't fun, but the time and money commitments usually mean that folks expect something in return. Well for a lot of the rookies, that return is experience, whether getting that first jersey or going to that first tournament, these guys are excited about what's to come in the future. I too have to ground myself from time to time and think about all the good times I had when I first joined the team and realize the experience of college ultimate will be gone before too long.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Weekend Result(s)

While the rest of the ultimate world was focused on Trouble in Vegas as well as Queen City Tune Up, our team decided to make the drive up to Portland to take on the local schools in the area sans Lewis & Clark who traveled to the desert. I couldn't make it up on Saturday for the preliminary games against Pacific and University of Portland but got the gist of what went down. Essentially we played ok against Pacific and won since they perennially struggle with numbers but are a great team and always up to play. Then we turned around and lost to U of P, 11-9 or something similar but without some of our key players which I'm sure was a factor. Not to take anything from U of P, they are a young team and are showing a lot of progression. Details are shady about Saturday night, but God and Reed threw some beer in the mix and let things happen. Boat racing lines are yet to be announced.

So this brings us to Sunday's main event versus Reed College. Since I've played for U of O-B, we've never beaten Reed, and its possible we've never beaten Reed, but now, the players on God actually have the mindset that we can take on any team and beat them and that is great for mental preparations before game play. I rolled up Sunday morning with what seems like half of our O line (me, Ted, Jimmy, and Nate) and we got to the field as both teams were warming up. My roommate was also nice enough to travel with us to film the game and he's committed to filming our tournaments as well so props to him. The first few points for either team went like the stuff of elite level teams. The offense works in down, stays calm and punches it in for the score which gets the game underway at 2-2. Then, as with any team, a miscue such as a drop, or cutter miscommunication, causes some frustration with the team and the steady play can easily change into a huckfest. Well our hucks aren't exactly our strength and the completed downfield throws are far and few between. We do manage to keep it even keel with Reed taking half up a break 9-8. We do our best to keep our heads in the game but with Berserk taking the pull and scoring at half and us getting it back to make it 10-9, the red and black go on a mini run, taking advantage of our mistakes to make the game 13-10. Guys like Ted and Taurin are playing O and D at this point trying to make something happen in a point which lasts for about 20 turnovers, with God finally getting the point to make it 13-11. Ginger gets a huge bookend score after this to pull us back within 1, and then we're back to point trading despite both teams turning it over. Neither team can pull away. At 15-15 there is some descretion about the score (Shane incorrectly thought we were ahead 16-15) but both teams are digging at this point. We've settled into our normal routine of finding open cutters running in, or operating a dominator amongst the three handlers which usually leads a cutter open downfield. Reed is also digging in and playing their best game as well. With us pulling to them, they take the disc and march their way down to the end zone and score. We answer back with a score, and they return the favor. 17-16 Reed at this point, win by 2. We need to score to stay in the game and unfortunately yours truly drops a floaty dump pass on our own goal line and Berserk takes it and punches it in for the win 18-16.

It was a great spirited friendly match and our offense started to click in this game after having been dominated by D in practice the past few weeks. With only 3 weeks to go now before Stanford, we're starting to look like a solid team but we still have a long way to go to cause a stir in our biggest tournament of the year.

In other news, Vegas proved that you're never down and out till all the chips are gone. While the pre-hyped Goliaths like Colorado, Florida, and Oregon all fell to David's in the pre-quarters, teams like Harvard and Arizona, despite being in either a hard pool or lower starting tier, rose to the occasion showing off all of their hard off season work. My hat's off to them. The implications of the weekend, is that most likely these teams were not originally going to be invited to Stanford or Centex, but given the current results, it seems plausible since both earned points for the NCUS. The series would really have a mess on their hands if these teams didn't get invited (especially Arizona given the proximity to both tournaments) because it would prove that the system was biased towards the big powerhouse teams in the first place, given only them the shot to win the championship and collect the big check. Only time will tell at this point.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Stanford Qualifier aka B Team Nationals?

Running around on the B team circuit for the past 4 years has usually afforded me, and I assume most other B teamers, the luxury of spending less money on the season as well as a more flexible schedule. I say this coming from a program with an elite level A team that competes at the premiere tournaments and plans to attend Nationals every year, wherever it may be. The trade off is that the quality of play isn't as high and long term goals are far and few between.

That may change this year with Cultimate's packaging of the big three: Trouble, Centex, and Stanford into what we now know as The National College Ultimate Series (NCUS). Now that there is a recognized designation of the top tournaments in the country (as if most players didn't already consider these the best), everyone is clamoring to play in them, maybe not so much to earn points towards the "regular season" crown but to say that they compete at the top level by attending these tournaments. This in turn can bring in eager young recruits from high school who've been competing at ultimate and want to attend schools where they can play with the best.

Now Centex is invite only, so you have to be established or have everyone know that you're team is having one of those years. 24 teams are selected every year which includes on average, about 75% of the teams attending Nationals that year. The schedule is grueling, spread out over two days, with the championship game being the 8th for both teams.

Trouble in Vegas on the other hand offsets the mean average of tournament attendance by lengths and bounds, and because it is still technically an open tournament where anyone can attend (anyone still can attend, but not at the risk of rejecting the bids of elite teams) the tournament spreads the gamut of talent from the cream of the cream down to sub mediocre local college teams. The barrier is that, the tournament is a tiered system, so lower teams have a chance for upward mobility but the reality is that the seedings are a good measurement of where most will end up finishing. The tournament is still a great experience even for the less talented teams and offers everyone a chance to play someone else outside of their region.

This leaves the Stanford Invite, one of the longest traditionally elite tournaments on the college circuit. My knowledge of ultimate only goes a few years and my information beyond that is spotty at best, which makes writing about Centex (started in 2004) and Trouble (2006) easier. This tournament has been going on since at least the early 90's and possibly the 80's, and has catered the dominant play of the northwest and the old western regions. Typically this tournament has been modeled after Nationals the most, consisting of 16 teams and occasionally 20 teams with the majority in the Nationals picture. The thing about Stanford is that while the name says Invite, this means that while the organizers round up all of the west coast powerhouses, elite teams from the rest of the country are encouraged to submit bids to create geographical diversity.

The biggest key to this tournament for the less talented teams is the Stanford Qualifier. The Stanford Invite every year takes the winner from this 16 or 20 team tournament into their elite field. Consisting of west coast B teams and "mid major" teams like UCLA, Whitman, Chico, etc. the tournament is a great event for these up and comers to get some quality experience with a great prize.

So now that I've rambled through trying to convey the idea of an exclusive Centex, a wide open Trouble, and an upper middle-class Stanford Invite, where am I going with this? Well like I said, all kinds of teams are interested in playing in the newly formed NCUS and beyond Trouble, which is the easiest to obtain a bid, its hard to break into the elite ranks... except for Stanford because of the qualifier tournament. I've been monitoring the progress of submitted bids since the bid window opened this morning and I'm blown away by some of the teams who want to play in this tournament. The biggest change is the interest in far away B teams, usually considered among the best in the nation. I think Stanford B has the formality of not having to submit a bid, so along with them Cal B, Oregon B, and Texas B have all submitted bids. Now I know the TD's won't make this a B team tournament but if all of those teams get bids as well as maybe some other top teams like UBC B, UCSB B, or Colorado B, this could be as close to a B team national tournament as anyone is going to see.

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Where to start

I have been retaining this blog for over a year now without a single post, simply because I've had grand illusions of writing something worthwhile and meaningful for other people to read, despite the fact that I like to procrastinate constantly. I had no idea what to write about, but I do enjoy Ultimate, traveling by car, and the occasional academic thought.

I have a quote stored away that I like to read when I feel uninspired and I don't want to write by Antwone Fisher:

"Life often has a way of making people feel small and unimportant. But if you find a way to express yourself through writing, to put your ideas and stories on paper, you'll feel more consequential. No one should pass through time without writing their thoughts and experiences down for others to learn from. Even if only one person, a family member, reads something you wrote long after you're gone, you live on. So writing gives you power. Writing gives you immortality."

I think that about sums up the idea of blogging in the first place and I will try to remain to that credo.